When Craps Trends are Fallible

Craps trends are based on an unthinking dice thrown randomly on the table with several bumps and bounces before it finally settles on the table. Some players choose to formulate winning patterns and strategies based on that, and the rest actually believe them.

There are certain craps trends that continue for a while, but never on a long term. We may take advantage of them when they appear and we're able to catch them with the right timing. But they, too, can be dangerous when considered a bit too long in the game. They can suddenly shift mood swing and pulverize our play and bankroll, especially if we dare apply bet progressions.

Trends have the tendency to coincide with patterns made up by people. And coincidence reinforced by frequency tends to end up being a system. As they say, a coin flipped 100 times has the tendency to end up tails some 50 times and heads some 50 times. The 40 or 50 times it ends up heads seem plausible enough to call the whole process a trend, when all they really are random flip results.

The truth is that over the long term play no "trend" is dependable. The most we can derive from craps trends is during short-term plays. Trends have the nature of lasting very short periodsólike 3 to 4 winnings or lossesóand longer than this is a rare occurrence, especially in a random dice game. The "trend" that may seem apparent is really more of coincidence and the people who won craps games with it tend to be too rush in declaring it to be so.

The only way craps trends can be legitimate systematic sequences established by connecting relevant factors is when we relate them with systematic shooters. If we ignore more random rollersóor "chicken feeders" who have no system with their dice rollsówe may even come up with a long-term strategy based on a dependable craps trend information. A system based on systematic craps trends can get rid of about 57 percent of the random rollers, leaving us with 43 percent sharp shooters to base a real craps trend on.

For starters, sharp or systematic shooters are set apart from the way they handle the dice, their grip, their careful and gentle maneuver, and their disciplined motions.

We must be careful with strategies based on so-called craps trends. What people often mean is craps coincident results that happen so many times.


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